2026年8月3日 Carlos P. Carmona 教授：Beyond species lists: a probabilistic view of biodiversity

主讲人：Carlos P. Carmona 教授

主持人：沈国春 教授

讲座时间：8月3日 14:00 PM

讲座地点：闵行校区资环楼269室

主办单位：生态与环境科学学院

报告人简介：

Carlos P. Carmona is a Distinguished Researcher at the Misión Biológica de Galicia (MBG-CSIC) in Pontevedra, Spain, where he leads the Functional Diversity and Trait Macroecology group; he is also a visiting professor at the University of Tartu, Estonia, and has previously worked at several other European institutions. His research develops probabilistic, trait-based approaches to biodiversity, describing ecological communities across scales through the functional traits of their organisms and through the species that are absent but could be present. He created the Trait Probability Density framework (TREE, 2016) and led the construction of the global unified plant functional space (Carmona et al., Nature, 2021; Carmona and Beccari, New Phytologist, 2025). In parallel he has developed probabilistic methods to estimate dark diversity and the hidden extinction debt it reveals (PCarmona et al., Nature, 2025), and he maintains the R packages that implement these methods, including TPD, funspace and DarkDiv. He coordinates the TraitDivNet network, which studies the coordination of above and belowground traits within and across the world ecosystems. He currently holds an ERC Consolidator Grant (PLECTRUM), developing novel methods to predict the functional structure of communities, and an ATRAE grant (INDIGO) that combines new sampling and new methods to understand the role of intraspecific variation in functional diversity.

报告简介：

测量生物多样性的常规方法是编制物种清单：记录物种的数量、种类及其比例。这种经典的分类学视角虽有价值，却丢弃了相关的生物学信息。为了更深入地理解生态群落，必须超越清单本身：一方面，要关注组成群落的物种具有怎样的特征、发挥什么作用，这由它们的性状决定；另一方面，要关注哪些物种虽未出现但可能出现，这被称为“暗多样性”。本次报告将介绍一个研究框架，该框架通过用概率密度替代清单，在性状空间和物种空间两个维度上同时应对上述问题。该框架的成果体现在两个方面：一是性状概率密度框架和统一的植物功能空间，二是对物种库和暗多样性的概率化处理，从而能够揭示单纯物种清单无法察觉的信号，如隐性灭绝债务和定殖信用。报告中还将讨论这些成果在保护和全球变化预测中的实际应用，最后以目前由植物生物学与生态学研究所（MBG）所协调的项目中对该框架的拓展方向作为总结，其中包括从环境因子预测群落功能结构与功能运作的方法。